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Forecast Discussion for Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 182125
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
225 PM PDT Thu Aug 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Another round of thunderstorms will continue this afternoon which
will be accompanied by gusty outflow winds and localized heavy
rainfall. Storm chances decrease tomorrow through next week as a
SW flow brings drier air over the region. Temperatures will be
near to above normal with typical afternoon breezes through the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Friday Night...

We`ll be getting one last round of mixed wet and dry thunderstorms
this afternoon before drying out for a few days. A negatively tilted
trough by the NV/ID border will be the main source of instability
for today`s storms. As the trough moves east, we`ll have high
pressure build in behind it keeping our area warm and dry for the
next few days.

This afternoon there are already some thunderstorms that have
developed mainly north of I-80. There will be a flash flood risk
today as storms may continue to train and produce localized heavy
rain, especially over recent burn scars. PWATs have gone down but
are still between 0.70-0.90", so it will be a mixed bag of wet
and dry thunderstorms this afternoon. The risk of dry lightning
combined with gusty outflow winds will be a concern today as fires
caused by lightning could quickly spread. Heading into tonight,
the showers will have all dissipated, leaving mostly clear skies
overnight and into tomorrow. There will be a 15-20% chance for
light showers tomorrow afternoon in southern Mono/northern
Pershing counties, otherwise we`ll stay warm and dry.

Temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will drop down to the low-
mid 60`s for western NV valleys and mid-40`s for communities in the
Sierra. High temperatures will bounce back tomorrow in the mid 90`s
and low 80`s for western NV and along the Sierra, respectively.
Westerly zephyr winds will persist today and tomorrow, gusting to 25
mph. -Justin

.LONG TERM...Saturday onward...

This weekend looks quite pleasant as dry, westerly flow brings near-
to slightly above-average temperatures and diminishing thunderstorm
chances. There is a 10-15% chance for thunderstorm development over
Mono County on Saturday, and minimal chances for the rest of the
region.

A shortwave trough looks to deepen over the Pacific Northwest on
Sunday into early next week. This system will enhance southwesterly
flow over the region through midweek, allowing afternoon zephyr
breezes to return and squash thunderstorm chances. Some cumulus
buildups and showers are possible in Mono County on Sunday, but
thunderstorm activity looks unlikely. Dry conditions and slightly
above-average temperatures will continue as southwest flow persists
over the region.

There are some signals pointing to some shower and thunderstorm
chances for the eastern Sierra by Thursday next week, with the GFS
ensemble suggesting an area of high pressure developing over the
region. Confidence is low on this potential setup, but it is
something to keep an eye on as the week progresses. -Whitlam

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms have developed over the Sierra range from
the Lake Tahoe area northward into Lassen County, as well as
portions of Storey and Lyon counties. These showers and storms
will move eastward into northern Washoe, Pershing, and Churchill
counties through the evening. Storms will be capable of gusty
outflow winds over 45 kts, blowing dust, heavy rain, terrain
obscurations, and frequent lightning.

Storm coverage on Friday will be mostly confined to southern Mono
County with a 15% chance of showers and thunderstorms impacting the
MMH terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail on Friday. -CMc

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Reno, NV (REV) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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